• Costa Rica Real Estate

In last presidential elections, polls overestimated Libertarian Guevara’s support and underestimated PAC’s

February 17, 2014

As Costa Rica’s election season enters its final stretch, candidates have greeted the slew of recent polls with disbelief or encouragement, often based on their own standings.

National Liberation Party (PLN) nominee Johnny Araya was incredulous over a January poll in the daily La Nación that put the former front-runner in a virtual tie with the Broad Front Party’s José María Villalta and the Libertarian Movement Party’s Otto Guevara.

“For the first time, I reject the results of a poll and I reject these categorically,” Araya said.

A Tico Times analysis of polls leading up to the 2010 election indicated that the polls were relatively accurate. Polls averaged 46.1 percent for PLN candidate Laura Chinchilla, who won with 46.9 percent of the vote on Election Day.

Polls missed by the widest margin on Citizen Action Party (PAC) candidate Ottón Solís. Polls averaged 13.1 percent support for Solís, and he went on to garner 25.1 percent. Solís ended by jumping ahead of Libertarian Movement Party candidate Guevara, who averaged 26.3 percent support in the polls, yet only won 20.9 percent of the vote.

The events of the campaign may explain why Ottón Solís outperformed his polls on Election Day 2010. He won a number of last-minute endorsements only a few weeks before the election.

The Tico Times looked at 10 polls from Nov. 26, 2009 through Jan. 26, 2010. Several polls were not included as their information was no longer available. Explore the graphic below.

CID-Gallup misestimated the top three candidates’ final percentage by an average of 6.6 percent. UNIMER-La Nación misestimated their percentages by 8.2 percent.

You may be interested

Costa Rican health authorities plan precautions in response to Chinese coronavirus
Global health
5 views
Global health
5 views

Costa Rican health authorities plan precautions in response to Chinese coronavirus

The Tico Times - January 20, 2020

Put down that cerveza, because this Corona is a little more serious. Costa Rican health authorities joined an international chorus…

Costa Rica limits the right to strike and prohibits it in essential services
Costa Rica
15 views
Costa Rica
15 views

Costa Rica limits the right to strike and prohibits it in essential services

AFP and The Tico Times - January 20, 2020

The President of Costa Rica, Carlos Alvarado, approved on Monday a law passed by the Legislative Assembly that sets limits…

Pompeo visits Colombia, where he will meet with Guaidó
Colombia
15 views
Colombia
15 views

Pompeo visits Colombia, where he will meet with Guaidó

Alina Dieste / AFP - January 20, 2020

The head of US diplomacy, Mike Pompeo, will meet on Monday in Colombia with the Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó,…

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!