The Panama Canal will take in about $400 million less in the next fiscal year due to a drop in ship traffic caused by global economic “uncertainty,” the canal authority warned Tuesday. For the upcoming fiscal year beginning October 1, the canal is expected to generate $5.207 billion from ship transits and other services, announced José Ramón Icaza, Minister for Canal Affairs.
That figure represents a decrease of $411 million (-7.4%) compared with projected revenues for the current fiscal year, which ends September 30. According to forecasts, there will be between 1,100 and 1,200 fewer transits than this year, when about 13,900 vessels carrying roughly 520 million tons of cargo will have crossed the route.
“We are in a period of extreme volatility, with high levels of uncertainty pointing to a possible drop in traffic volume through the Panama Canal,” said canal administrator Ricaurte Vásquez. This decline, Vásquez explained, stems from lower projected global economic growth rates, which have fallen from 3.3% earlier this year to 2.5% today.
“As the economy slows, trade volumes decrease,” he added. Last Thursday, Vásquez said it was “very likely” that over time the canal would not see “the same volume” of cargo due to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Since August 7, dozens of economies worldwide have faced higher U.S. customs duties, as Trump’s long-threatened “reciprocal” tariffs took effect in response to what he deems unfair trade practices. However, neither Vásquez nor Icaza, who spoke to the press after presenting the projections to Panama’s Cabinet, mentioned Trump’s tariff policies.
The 80-kilometer Panama Canal links the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and connects more than 1,900 ports in 170 countries. Roughly 5% of global maritime trade passes through the canal. Its main route connects ports in China, Japan, and South Korea with terminals on the U.S. East Coast.
Despite the projected revenue drop, the canal expects to deliver $3.194 billion to Panama’s national treasury next year—about $400 million more than this year.
