Although Latin America has not been a priority in the campaign for the November 5 elections in the United States, the victory of either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could have dramatic repercussions for a region from which thousands of migrants head to the United States.
Both have promised to toughen measures against immigration, one of the main concerns for Americans, regardless of whether they vote Democrat or Republican, according to polls.
For Latin Americans fleeing the consequences of climate change, violence, poverty, or the collapse of democracy in some countries, the United States still represents the dream of a better life, if not for themselves, then for their children.
A dream that Donald Trump has promised to cut short. He won the 2016 election with a focus on immigration and hopes to do the same next week. The United States has become the “world’s trash can,” he repeats.
Largest Deportation Effort in History
The Republican has promised to close borders, end reception programs like Temporary Protected Status (TPS) which, in the past two years, has benefited thousands of Venezuelans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Cubans, end birthright citizenship, and undertake the “largest deportation effort in United States history” with the help of the U.S. military, the National Guard, or a new deportation force.
“It’s unclear on what scale this would happen, but even if it’s half or a third of what’s promised, it would have dramatic repercussions on Latin American economies and U.S. relations in the region,” says Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America program at the Wilson Center in Washington.
“The region is not well-positioned to withstand that kind of economic shock,” he adds. Especially Central America, where remittances account for more than 30% of GDP in countries like El Salvador and Nicaragua, although the world’s largest recipient is Mexico, with nearly 3.5% of GDP, according to a recent report from Fitch Ratings.
A deportation campaign like the one Trump proposes, alongside other economic protectionist policies like imposing tariffs — he’s mentioned rates as high as 200% for cars — to favor domestic production, could cause “a decline in the United States, which would have a cascading impact” on its trade partners in Latin America, Gedan adds.
Mexico “won’t sell a single car” to the United States, Trump threatened, after it became the United States’ main trading partner last year, ahead of China.
Trump has a vision of international relations in which he believes that “the United States should not have friends, only interests,” says Eduardo Gamarra, an academic at Florida International University, to AFP.
Strengthening the Border
Harris, who as Vice President in Joe Biden’s administration has worked to address the root causes of migration, has also promised measures at the border. The Democratic candidate has expressed her intention to push for a bipartisan law that received support from moderate Republicans in the Senate but failed due to Trump’s pressure.
The bill aimed to strengthen borders, address gaps in the asylum process, give the President more authority to close crossings when border crossings are high, and restrict TPS, which allows immigrants temporary entry into the United States. Illegal border crossings have reached record levels under the Biden-Harris administration, though they have decreased in recent months.
An average of 2 million migrants entered the United States, primarily through its southern border with Mexico, between 2021 and 2023, although last year alone 1.1 million were deported, and as of June this year, another 400,000, according to data from USAFacts. Anti-immigration policies would be “faster with Trump and more gradual with Harris,” says University of Florida academic José Miguel Cruz.
Difficult Deterrence
The situation in Latin America, whether it is doing well or poorly, “directly and quickly impacts the United States,” says Gedan. “When the region is prosperous, you have great economic partners for the United States.”
But the number of people risking their lives to cross the Darién jungle, between Colombia and Panama, on their way to the United States shows “the desperation of places like Venezuela, Ecuador, Haiti, and other parts of the region,” says Gedan.
“It’s hard to imagine that any type of border policy in the United States could deter people from fleeing their homeland,” the expert adds.
