Costa Rica is heading into a hotter and drier stretch in the coming months, with the National Meteorological Institute warning (IMN) that El Niño conditions are increasingly likely to take shape during the second half of 2026. The outlook points to less rainfall across the country, higher average temperatures, and a tougher dry-season feel even as the rainy season begins to settle in.
For those us living here and people planning a longer stay, the forecast is more than a weather note. It could affect everything from water use and gardening to hiking schedules, home cooling costs, and wildfire risk, especially in the Pacific regions and Guanacaste, where the heat is expected to hit hardest. IMN director Welmer Stolz said temperature anomalies could run about 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above normal, with Guanacaste standing out as the most affected area.
The rainfall outlook is also notable. IMN projects below-normal precipitation across the country in several periods this year, with deficits of 15% to 20% from April through June, 10% to 20% from July through August, and 10% to 30% from September through November. That last window could bring the biggest drop in rainfall, raising concerns about water availability, agriculture, and fire conditions in parts of the country already prone to long dry spells.
The forecast comes as international climate agencies also see El Niño becoming more likely later this year, though the Pacific is still in a transition phase now. NOAA said in its March 2026 ENSO discussion that neutral conditions were favored through late spring, but El Niño was likely to emerge in June to August and continue through at least the end of the year. The World Meteorological Organization has also pointed to a rapid move toward El Niño territory beyond April.
That timing matters in Costa Rica because El Niño often shifts our country’s rainfall patterns just as communities are expecting steadier wet-season relief. IMN’s weekly sub-seasonal outlook already shows drier-than-normal conditions in the Pacific for the week of April 13 to 19, offering an early sign of the kind of imbalance forecasters are watching.
In practical terms, people living in Costa Rica for the coming months may want to get ahead of the forecast now. Homes without strong ventilation or air conditioning may feel the strain first. Gardens and small farms may need closer attention. Families in areas that depend on local water systems may want to watch for conservation requests if rainfall stays below average.
Outdoor workers and hikers may also need to shift routines earlier in the day as midday heat becomes more punishing. Those are reasonable takeaways from the forecast, even though local impacts will vary by region and by how strongly El Niño develops.
There may be one tradeoff in the broader outlook. El Niño is often linked to lower tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, and IMN said the 2026 Atlantic season could produce between nine and 12 systems, below the historical average. Still, the institute warned Costa Rica could feel indirect effects from at least one system between June 1 and November 30, meaning a drier overall pattern does not rule out disruptive rain events.
For now, the message from forecasters is straightforward: Costa Rica is not in full El Niño conditions yet, but the odds are rising, and our country should be preparing for a warmer and drier second half of the year.
