Costa Rica coffee producers need to prepare for a difficult period in 2026. The Coffee Institute of Costa Rica (ICAFE) issued the warning as it pointed to a stronger colón and the likelihood of record harvests in major producing countries. Officials said these factors could generate multimillion-colón losses across the sector and leave many farms unable to cover costs.
The exchange rate stands as one key pressure. Four years ago the dollar bought more than 685 colones. Today the rate sits near 470 colones, with projections pointing to 450 colones in coming months. Producers sell coffee in dollars but receive payment in colones, so the shift reduces the money available for local expenses such as labor, inputs and maintenance.
International prices compound the problem. The arabica benchmark on the New York exchange fell from $440 per quintal in October to about $280 today. Brazil, the world’s largest producer, could harvest between 61 million and 76 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2026-2027 season. That volume would likely push prices lower, into the $240 to $275 range.
These changes show up directly in what growers receive. Current estimates put the liquidation price at 118,627 colones per fanega. Under projected conditions for next year, that payment drops to 91,340 colones. Production costs average 107,630 colones per fanega on farms that yield 20 fanegas per hectare. The gap leaves little profit and raises the possibility of losses.
ICAFE compared the numbers to earlier seasons. At the 650-colones-per-dollar rate from 2021-2022, the same market conditions would have delivered 162,014 colones per fanega. The institute described the outlook as a point of inflection after three years of better conditions.
The sector already shows strain. About 2,000 producers have left the activity in recent years. Forecasts indicate up to 15,000 jobs could disappear over the next four years if the trends hold. Coffee farming operates in 47 rural cantons. It generates more than 100,000 direct jobs and another 35,000 during harvest periods. Many small and medium operations make up the bulk of producers, and the activity supports entire local economies.
ICAFE called on producers to manage the situation carefully now that sales from the current 2025-2026 harvest have wrapped up. The institute also works toward urgent talks with government authorities on exchange-rate policies. Officials noted that the challenges affect all of Costa Rican agriculture, not just coffee.
The institute continues to run analyses and plans to share further measures and outlooks with growers in the weeks ahead.
