The U.S. dollar has given back part of its early-October rebound against the Costa Rican colón, but the head of the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) has warned that a widening gap between Costa Rican and U.S. interest rates could push the exchange rate higher again. The rate for today was ₡454.50 to buy and ₡460.35 to sell, down from ₡455.71 and ₡462.08 yesterday.
On the Foreign Currency Market (Monex), the dollar eached ₡460.45 on Oct. 1, up ₡13.65, or 3.1%, from the record low of ₡446.80 set on Sept. 17. It then eased to ₡458.67 on Friday, Oct. 2, ending a run of five consecutive daily gains, and averaged ₡457.03 on Monday, Oct. 5, in a session with about $68.7 million traded.
In real terms, $1,000 exchanged at yesterday’s Monex average was worth about ₡457,030, roughly ₡10,230 more than at the September low. The gains extended a dollar rebound from its record low that began in the second half of September. BCCR President Róger Madrigal has identified the interest rate differential with the United States as the main risk.
The Central Bank lowered its monetary policy rate from 3.25% to 3% in July and has held it there since July 24, while the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Madrigal said the gap between the two had widened to between 75 and 100 basis points.
Madrigal explained that when the financial return favors one currency, demand for it rises while demand for others falls. If dollar-denominated assets continue to offer better returns, savers and investors could move money out of colones, adding to dollar demand and putting upward pressure on the exchange rate.
He said such a shift had not yet occurred on a significant scale but described the widening differential as a genuine risk. The BCCR’s next scheduled monetary policy review is on Nov. 26.
Economists do not all read the situation the same way. Fernando Rodríguez, an economist at the National University (UNA), said after Friday’s session that keeping the policy rate at 3% would continue to make Costa Rica attractive to investors seeking yield, sustaining the flow of dollars into the country.
Seasonal factors could also pull in the other direction. Federico Quesada Chaves, director of the School of Administrative Sciences at the State Distance University (UNED), has said the extra foreign currency that typically enters the market with aguinaldo payments, bonuses and holiday spending from late October could renew downward pressure on the dollar.
Even after the rebound, the dollar remains well below where it began the year. Monex averaged ₡497.07 on Jan. 2, meaning the dollar has lost about 8% of its value against the colón in 2026. It also sits roughly 34% below its June 2022 peak of ₡696.76.
The colón’s strength has squeezed exporters and tourism businesses that earn in dollars but pay salaries and other costs in colones, and it has coincided with a wave of job cuts at major employers. For households, the rate determines what dollar-denominated rents, loans and imported goods cost in local currency.
Whether the October rebound resumes may depend less on local dollar supply than on the direction of U.S. rates in the weeks before the Central Bank’s November meeting.
