Panama’s seasonal upwelling in the Gulf failed to appear this year, marking the first such event in at least 40 years. Scientists point to reduced trade winds as the main cause, with ties to broader climate shifts that could harm local fisheries and coral reefs.
Each year from January to April, strong northerly winds push surface waters away, allowing cold, nutrient-packed deep waters to rise in the Gulf of Panama. This process fuels marine life, boosts fish stocks, and cools reefs during warmer months.
But in 2025, that didn’t happen. Researchers from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute tracked the change and found temperatures stayed high, with no typical drop below 25°C until late March, and even then, it lasted just 12 days instead of the usual 66.
The team saw water layers remain stratified, blocking nutrients from reaching the surface. They link this to a 74% drop in northerly wind events, shorter durations, and weaker overall force. Wind data showed anomalies in the region, with offshore speeds far below normal. Authors of a new study in PNAS note that La Niña patterns in 2024-2025 may have shifted the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward, cutting wind jet strength, though past La Niña years didn’t cause full failures.
This points to climate change playing a role, as shifting patterns disrupt wind systems more often. One researcher said the event shows how quickly climate effects can hit basic ocean functions. Without upwelling, primary production falls, which ripples through food chains. Fisheries, both commercial and small-scale, face lower catches, hitting communities that have relied on these waters for generations.
Coral reefs suffer too. Upwelling normally eases heat stress, but its absence leaves them exposed to warmer waters longer, raising bleaching risks. In Panama, reefs like those in Coiba National Park depend on this cooling to thrive amid rising global temperatures.
The study drew from 40 years of satellite sea surface temperature data, plus 30 years of on-site measurements. Figures compare 2025 to past years, showing clear gaps in wind forcing and water mixing. Spanish reports confirm the same, calling it a warning on climate impacts to ocean processes.
For Costa Rica, this matters. Similar upwelling happens here in the Gulf of Papagayo, driven by the same winds. If patterns weaken further, local fishers and tourism tied to healthy reefs could feel it. Experts call for better monitoring in tropical areas to catch these changes early.
Panama’s government and scientists plan more research to pin down long-term trends. For now, the 2025 failure serves as a sign that climate shifts hit close to home, affecting food security and ecosystems across Central America. Local groups watch for recovery next season, but repeated events could reshape coastal life.
