The ground across the Caribbean can no longer absorb water. Soil saturation in Caribbean river basins sits between 90 and 100%, according to the Instituto Meteorológico Nacional, and basins in the South Pacific are above 85%. Everything that falls today runs off, which is why Costa Rica woke up under an orange alert.
If you are in the Caribbean, the Northern Zone or Turrialba, treat today as a day to change plans rather than push through them. Those areas carry the orange alert. The Central Valley, Central Pacific and South Pacific are on yellow. The North Pacific has no alert at all, so Guanacaste is not part of this.
Orange is one step below the highest level, and it is not a prediction. It means damage is already happening, which is why shelters and evacuations came before the alert rather than after it. The rain has been heavy overnight. In the six hours to 4 a.m., Puerto Viejo de Sarapiquí took 59.6 millimeters (2.3 inches) and Canta Bratsi in the South Caribbean took 57.3 millimeters (2.3 inches). The strongest gust recorded was 52 kilometers per hour (32 miles per hour) at Asada Guayabo.
More is coming, and the system driving it has not arrived yet. Tropical wave No. 33 was still sitting near the Panama border when the meteorological institute issued its 4:07 a.m. bulletin. It crosses the country during the day, on top of ground that is already at capacity.
Expect 20 to 50 millimetres (0.8 to 2 inches) over 12 hours in the Caribbean and Northern Zone, with peaks that could pass 90 millimetres (3.5 inches). The North Pacific and Central Valley are looking at 10 to 50 millimetres (0.4 to 2 inches). The Central and South Pacific get downpours with thunderstorms, generally 10 to 20 millimetres (0.4 to 0.8 inches) but with peaks to 50 millimetres (2 inches).
Trade winds stay moderate with occasional strong gusts in mountain areas, running 60 to 80 kilometres per hour (37 to 50 miles per hour). In isolated cases near storm clouds, gusts can reach 100 kilometres per hour (62 miles per hour). That is enough to bring down branches and power lines, so if you feel a sudden strong gust near a storm cloud, get indoors rather than waiting to see what happens.
Two travel warnings in this bulletin matter if you have anything booked. Pilots are advised to expect increased turbulence, so a bumpy approach into San José or Liberia today is normal rather than alarming. And sea conditions are rougher, particularly in the southern part of the North Pacific, the Gulf of Nicoya and the Central and South Pacific. If you have a boat tour, a Nicoya crossing or a Tortuguero transfer, call the operator this morning instead of assuming it sails.
There is a warning for towns too. Urban drainage systems may not cope with the volume, which means streets flood in places that are nowhere near a river. If you live or are staying somewhere that has puddled badly before, that is your indicator. The weekend already displaced people. At least 495 were in shelters as of Sunday evening, with 154 across three sites in the Caribbean, 331 across seven sites in Sarapiquí and 10 in Turrialba. The community of Ulima de Florencia was left almost entirely underwater.
Several communities in Talamanca are cut off as the Sixaola river runs high, and homes have taken damage in Valle de La Estrella, Siquirres, Guácimo and Matina. In Sarapiquí the Tigre river has left its channel, and the Sarapiquí, Puerto Viejo and Sucio rivers are being watched.
Roads are the part most likely to change while you are reading this. Route 32 to Limón stayed closed overnight because the saturated slopes at Cerro Zurquí were still judged too likely to give way, and an inspection was scheduled for this morning. Route 230 between Cot and Turrialba has slide damage, and the section of Route 415 between Turrialba and La Herediana known locally as the sinkhole remains closed. Check the current status before you drive rather than relying on this or any other article.
Classes are cancelled at 934 schools, with all campuses closed across the Turrialba, Sarapiquí, Limón and Sulá regional directorates. The single most useful habit today is refusing to drive through standing water. You cannot see whether the road underneath is still there, and moving water needs surprisingly little depth to lift a vehicle off its wheels.
The second is giving hillsides room on mountain routes, especially where you can see fresh mud or fallen material at the pavement edge, because that means the slope is still moving. The meteorological institute issues its next bulletin at 10 a.m.
