Costa Ricans elect a president this Sunday, with ruling-party candidate Laura Fernández the clear favorite, buoyed by promises of a tough crackdown on crime that her rivals say would push the country toward authoritarianism. About 3.7 million citizens are being called to the polls to choose a president and lawmakers for four years in a country known for stability and social well-being, but where drug trafficking is expanding alongside a high level of violence.
A conservative political scientist, 39, Fernández is the political heir to popular President Rodrigo Chaves. Polls place her atop voting intentions after she put security, Costa Ricans’ main concern, at the center of her campaign. We’re going to win in the first round and we’ll do it with 40 lawmakers!” said the former minister of the Presidency and of Planning as she closed her campaign, referring to the majority she would need in the 57-seat Congress to reform the Constitution and the powers of the state.
A Fernández victory would further entrench the right in Latin America, after wins in Chile, Bolivia, Peru, and Honduras. Chaves is an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. To avoid a runoff on April 5, she needs 40% of the vote. According to the most recent poll by the well-regarded University of Costa Rica (UCR), she would get 44%, although 26% of voters are still undecided.
The Bukele factor
Even though homicides hit a record peak of 17 cases per 100,000 inhabitants under his government, Chaves blames the judiciary for allowing criminals to enjoy impunity. Authorities say most murders are linked to drug trafficking, which has turned Costa Rica, long considered one of the continent’s safest countries, into a logistics hub and export corridor for drugs.
Fernández proposes finishing construction of a prison inspired by the mega-prison for gang members built by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, whom she admires, along with harsher sentences and states of emergency in troubled, marginalized areas. “You don’t have to lock people up for being tattooed,” counters Álvaro Ramos, the candidate of the traditional National Liberation Party (social democratic) and second in the polls with under 10%.
“I like Laura because she follows the president’s line. There’s a lot of theft here, lots of kids selling drugs,” says Jessenia Ordóñez in Alajuelita, a part of San José that is among the country’s most violent. Ariel Ramos, of the leftist Broad Front, says Fernández wants to impose El Salvador’s “dubious” democracy, where Bukele holds absolute power and has established indefinite re-election.
Opponents, who also call her “populist” and a “bad copy” of Chaves for using the same aggressive rhetoric, say she wants to change the Constitution so her mentor can return to power in four years. At present, he could only run again after sitting out two presidential terms.
Her adversaries argue that if she wins, Chaves would govern the country of 5.2 million from behind the scenes.
Anger
The right-wing candidate rejects claims that she wants to “install an authoritarianism.” “The dictatorship of privileges has its days numbered,” she says, referring to the branches of government. Analysts say Fernández also built her frontrunner status on public anger at traditional politicians and the weakening of sectors such as health care.
A UCR study says the country has accumulated five years of fiscal stability “at the cost” of reduced funding for welfare programs. What is at stake is the question of “how the country is governed and under what rules,” under the premise that cutting violence “may require fewer controls, fewer checks and balances, and fewer guarantees,” UCR researcher Marcela Piedra told AFP.
The opposition, whose proposals are scattered among around twenty candidates, is betting on a runoff or on having a legislative bloc that can counter Fernández’s hegemonic ambitions. “We’re tired of the fighting and the circus,” says former first lady Claudia Dobles, a centrist who fluctuates between second and third place in voter preferences, referring to the expressions and tone used by Chaves and Fernández.
Although poverty fell from 18% in 2024 to 15.2% in 2025, Costa Rica ranks among the six most unequal Latin American countries on the Gini index and is the second most expensive after Uruguay, hitting lower-income groups hardest. Polling stations will be open for 12 hours starting at 06:00 local time (12:00 GMT). The first official results will be announced around 21:00 local time (03:00 GMT).
