Forty-five years ago, the Sandinista guerrilla overthrew the Somoza family dictatorship in Nicaragua. Today, President Daniel Ortega, in power for 17 years, faces accusations from opponents and critics of establishing a regime similar to the one he helped defeat. Here are five key points to understand the situation in Nicaragua:
Protests
In April 2018, Nicaragua experienced strong protests against Ortega that lasted three months, resulting in over 300 deaths, hundreds of detentions, and thousands of exiles, according to the UN. Ortega and Vice President Rosario Murillo claimed the protests were a US-sponsored coup attempt, controlled with paramilitaries.
The government expelled 316 critics in 2023, stripping them of nationality and property. Experts at the UN reported that the government commits human rights violations akin to crimes against humanity.
Press and Religion
No foreign journalist can enter Nicaragua. Since 2018, 263 Nicaraguan journalists have gone into exile, mainly in Costa Rica and the US. Nicaragua ranks 163rd out of 180 in the Reporters Without Borders (RSF) index. Accusing the Catholic Church of supporting protests, the government banned street processions and expelled around 200 religious figures. New cybercrime and foreign agents laws were inspired by Russian legislation. Over 3,600 organizations were closed since 2018, including a Jesuit university, for not reporting the origin of their funds.
Russia and China
Nicaragua, allied with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, is sanctioned by the US and EU for its human rights situation. China has infrastructure projects in Nicaragua and exports various goods to the country. For the regime, commercial and financial ties with China are a tactical option amid deteriorating relations with democratic countries.
Nicaragua’s security depends entirely on Russia, with Russian military presence, police training, and arms purchases. Nicaragua has facilitated migration to the US, with over 1,000 charter flights transporting around 200,000 migrants between May 2023 and May 2024.
Succession
Ortega, who first governed in the 1980s after the revolution, lost the 1990 elections and returned to power in 2007. He was re-elected in three elections questioned by Washington, the EU, and international bodies. The 78-year-old ex-guerrilla leader governs with his wife, while their children work in the government and control the media.
The Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) controls the entire state. Ortega granted his son Laureano full powers to negotiate with China, with opponents seeing him as the heir apparent. Orozco, an analyst, believes democratic change might come from internal collapse.
“Apparent Normality”
The government will celebrate on July 19, with Murillo stating they fight against the enemies of humanity, including traitors. Maradiaga commented that there is apparent normality in the country as long as there are no criticisms of the system. Orozco noted that Nicaraguans are more concerned with daily life, with migration serving as a labor escape valve. Many people aspire to leave, receive remittances (27% of GDP), gain favor with the government, or live in denial to avoid trouble.
