Former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan on Wednesday topped a United Nations Security Council “straw poll” for the fourth time in the race to become the next UN secretary-general, according to a diplomatic source. Uncertainty remains over the outcome, however, because the possibility that a major power could veto her candidacy has not been ruled out in the complex and opaque process used to select the future head of an organization increasingly strained by divisions among its members.
Four women and three men are currently seeking to succeed Portugal’s António Guterres, 77, who will complete his second five-year term as UN secretary-general on December 31. During Wednesday’s closed-door vote, the 15 members of the Security Council anonymously assigned each candidate one of three ratings: “encourage,” “discourage” or “no opinion.”
According to a diplomatic source, Grynspan finished first with nine “encourage” votes, six “discourage” votes and no “no opinion” votes. It was the fourth time she has led the field in five straw polls held since July. Her showing, however, was weaker than in a previous vote held on September 29, when she received 10 “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes and two “no opinion” votes.
Most importantly, a single opposing vote from one of the Security Council’s five permanent members would be enough to derail her candidacy. Because the straw polls are anonymous, it is not known whether one or more of those countries — France, the United Kingdom, Russia, China and the United States — were among the six members that voted to “discourage” her candidacy.
Later in the process, color-coded ballots will reveal whether any permanent member intends to use its veto. That next round of voting could take place before the end of the month, according to several diplomatic sources. It also remains entirely possible that another candidate could enter the race.
“In 1995, Kofi Annan was not a candidate, and he appeared one day before he was elected,” one diplomatic source noted. Grynspan, 70, recently stepped aside from her leadership role at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, or UNCTAD, which she had headed for slightly more than four years, in order to campaign for the secretary-general post.
Finishing behind her in Wednesday’s vote was Rafael Grossi of Argentina, the current director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who received six “encourage” votes, seven “discourage” votes and two “no opinion” votes. He was followed by Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, a former foreign minister of Guyana, who received five “encourage” votes, nine “discourage” votes and one “no opinion” vote.
Unless there is a significant shift, Rodrigues-Birkett’s chances of being selected appear to be fading as opposition to her candidacy grows.
