For the better part of 2026, the story for anyone earning dollars in Costa Rica has been the same: the colón keeps getting stronger, and your dollars keep buying less. That trend now appears to be flattening out — and several of the most-watched economists here say the market may be approaching its floor.
The dollar closed at ¢454.44 on the Foreign Exchange Market (Monex) on Monday, and remained near that level through midweek, with bank windows quoting roughly ¢451 to ¢456. That is barely changed from a month ago, a sharp contrast to the steady decline seen earlier in the year. At the beginning of the year, the average rate stood at about ¢497.07 — meaning the dollar has shed more than ¢42, or close to 9%, in under six months.
The shift in tone among analysts is what’s new this time. Rather than forecasting further appreciation of the colón, several now describe a market settling into balance. The consensus is what we should expect a modest rebound in the dollar over the coming months, but not a return to ¢500 before year’s end.
Former Central Bank President Rodrigo Cubero said the exchange rate may be nearing an equilibrium point that would allow it to stabilize and even tick upward, though without crossing back over ¢500. He cautioned that currency movements are notoriously hard to predict, and pointed to several pressures that could nudge the dollar higher: international commodity prices that remain elevated since the conflict between Iran and Israel, and the trade and investment policies coming out of Washington.
Those U.S. policies, Cubero noted, have not yet meaningfully dented Costa Rica’s export performance or its ability to attract foreign direct investment — but they do act as a mild brake. He also flagged early signs of a slowdown in service exports, tourism in particular, along with softer foreign investment flows.
Banking expert Gerardo Corrales estimates that financial institutions are currently sitting on a surplus of around $600 million. Lower global oil prices have cut state refiner Recope’s demand for dollars, he explained, while the government has eased pressure on the market by raising money through debt issued abroad. With more dollars entering the country than the economy needs, Corrales sees little reason for the trend to reverse.
“I don’t see how the trend we’ve been experiencing toward a slight appreciation of the colón, which is keeping it at around ¢455 to ¢460, is going to change,” he said. He also ruled out any sudden swing, citing the Central Bank’s roughly $21 billion in international reserves as a buffer against a foreign-exchange crisis or capital flight. A return to ¢500, in his view, is highly unlikely under current conditions.
Economist Norberto Zúñiga put the strength of the colón in longer perspective: the exchange rate is now about 35% below where it stood in June 2022. He attributes the move to a combination of strong free-trade-zone exports, robust tourism inflows, cheaper fuel, and the Central Bank’s restrictive monetary policy.
For retirees on U.S. pensions or Social Security, remote workers paid in dollars, and anyone funding a property purchase or construction project from abroad, the real effect has been steady erosion of purchasing power. A $1,000 monthly income that converted to about ¢497,070 in January is now worth roughly ¢454,440 — a difference of more than ¢42,000 a month, before any bank spread.
The newer question for that group is no longer “is the dollar low?” — it has been for months — but “has it bottomed out?” If the analysts are right that the market is near equilibrium with a modest rebound ahead, the steep monthly losses of early 2026 may be largely behind us.
That said, every economist quoted stressed that exchange-rate forecasts carry real uncertainty, and none predicted a sharp move in either direction. This article is reporting on those forecasts, not financial advice; anyone making decisions about converting currency, timing a large purchase, or hedging should weigh their own situation and consider a professional.
For anyone visiting us, Costa Rica remains relatively expensive in dollar terms compared with a few years ago, and nothing in the current outlook points to that easing in 2026.
