New rules for visa-exempt tourists heading to the United States may drive away millions of visitors and hit the country’s economy hard. A recent study points to potential drops in arrivals and spending, raising questions about the balance between security and economic growth.
The World Travel and Tourism Council released findings on Wednesday showing that requiring social media histories from the past five years could cut international arrivals by up to 4.7 million in 2026. This equals a 23.7 percent fall from countries using the Electronic System for Travel Authorization, or ESTA. Those nations include Chile—the only one in Latin America—along with France, the United Kingdom, and Japan, among 42 total.
The U.S. government under President Donald Trump announced the plan in December. It targets travelers from visa-waiver countries who now only need basic personal details for ESTA approval. The new requirements would add social media data, email addresses from the last decade, and family information like names, birth dates, and addresses of parents, spouses, siblings, and children.
Economic modeling in the study estimates losses of up to $15.7 billion in direct visitor spending. When factoring in broader effects on travel and tourism, the total rises to $21.5 billion. “Over 150,000 jobs could disappear if this policy goes forward,” said Gloria Guevara, the council’s chief executive, in a statement.
The council surveyed 4,563 frequent international travelers from key markets such as the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, and South Korea. The poll ran from December 23, 2025, to January 2, 2026. Results show 66 percent already know about the proposal. Thirty-four percent said it would make them less likely to visit the U.S. in the next two to three years. Just 12 percent felt more inclined to go.
Most respondents see the changes as making the U.S. less welcoming for both leisure and business trips. The study notes that U.S. tourism has already shed 11 million visitors from 2019 to 2025, partly due to past immigration policies and trade measures. In 2024, the sector added $2.6 trillion to the economy, backed more than 20 million jobs, and brought in over $585 billion in tax revenue—about 7 percent of the total.
For Costa Rica, the shift does not directly touch locals, who must get full visas to enter the U.S. Still, industry observers here suggest it might steer more European and Asian travelers toward Latin American spots. Costa Rica competes for those groups with its natural attractions and easier access. “Restrictive steps in a major market like the U.S. create openings for other areas,” noted an official from the Costa Rican Tourism Institute, while adding that global rivalry remains strong.
The proposal sits in the Federal Register for public input until February 9. If approved, it could start soon after, overlapping with the U.S. 250th anniversary events and FIFA World Cup games in places like Miami. The council calls on U.S. leaders to weigh security needs against economic risks. As debates continue, global tourism players watch closely, aware that similar rules elsewhere could reshape travel patterns.
