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Costa Rica
Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Covid reproduction rate suggests continued drop in cases, deaths

Costa Rica’s coronavirus R value remains below one, suggesting that the number of new infections will continue to decrease, according to analysis from the University of Costa Rica (UCR).

The UCR estimates the R value in Costa Rica at 0.925, and it has remained below 1.0 since mid-May. The R number describes how quickly a disease spreads, or how many people would get infected on average from one positive person.

Via the UCR:

The reproduction rate of the pandemic in Costa Rica is R = 0.92 with data updated to June 18, similar to that estimated in the last three weeks. The country is in the descending phase of the pandemic wave thanks to the fact that the R rate is less than one.

It is projected, in an optimistic scenario of an additional drop in the R rate, that within two months, on August 18, the number of diagnosed cases will be 300 daily and there will be 250 people hospitalized, 100 in the ICU. These three amounts become 700 diagnoses, 600 hospitalized and 200 in the ICU, if, in a neutral scenario, the R rate remains constant.

A rapid drop in the number of deaths is expected, not only due to the lowering of the pandemic curve, but also due to the effect of preferential vaccination of the most vulnerable people.

The below graphic updates automatically as the Health Ministry releases new coronavirus data: 

If you believe you have COVID-19, contact Costa Rica’s hotline at 1322. English-speaking staff and mental health professionals are available. Visit the Costa Rican Presidency for the official list of coronavirus measures and alerts. 

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