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Conflicting Polls Predict Different Winners in Runoff

October 19, 2007

GUATEMALA CITY – Right-wing retired Gen. Otto Pérez is leading social democrat Alvaro Colom by 7.6% in voter preference for Guatemala’s Nov. 4 presidential runoff.

A survey published Oct. 8 in the daily Siglo Veintiuno said that Pérez has a 53.8% voter preference, while Colom got 46.2%, according to the poll carried out among 1,200 people over the period Sept. 22-28 and which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8%.

According to the study, 12.1% of Guatemalans are undecided about whether to vote in the second round.

The social democrat finished first in the general elections held last Sept. 9 with 28.23% of the vote, followed by Pérez with 23.51%, but the threshold for victory is an absolute majority.

Nonetheless, a poll published Oct. 6 by the international firm CID-Gallup gave Colom 44.7% and Pérez 42.% of voter preference.

The more than 5.9 million Guatemalans registered to vote will be able to cast their ballots on Nov. 4 to elect the President who will govern the country during the 2008-2012 term.

 

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